Simulated Forward Testing
Our Educational Approach
SJ Options provides education about options, volatility, strategy structure, and risk concepts. The materials explain analytical frameworks and show how they were applied in historical simulated examples.
These historical examples are simulated paper trades for educational purposes. They were not executed through brokerage accounts and do not represent actual client results or recommendations to trade.
The calculation basis for each percentage is identified with its chart. Figures are trade-level calculations, not compounded portfolio returns, and may not be directly comparable across methods. The charts do not show the full path of each position, including interim losses or maximum drawdowns.
Trade values use closing midpoint prices; commissions and other costs are excluded. Modeled results may differ from live execution prices, broker margin requirements, costs, and results. These company-maintained records have not been independently audited. Hypothetical results do not predict or guarantee future performance. Nothing here is investment advice.
The sections below bring together historical paper-trade examples from SJ Options’ educational materials.
Each table summarizes the measures and assumptions identified for that group of examples. They are illustrations, not recommendations.
2014 Paper-Trade Case Studies 34 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · SPX AND RUT
Product |
Closed |
Return on modeled Reg-T BP |
Return on modeled PM BP |
Duration |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RUT |
JAN |
2.2% |
-- |
33D |
|
SPX |
JAN |
6.6% |
-- |
42D |
|
SPX |
MAR |
2.5% |
-- |
105D |
|
SPX |
MAR |
23% |
-- |
4D |
|
RUT |
MAR |
7.6% |
-- |
43D |
|
SPX |
APR |
9% |
-- |
17D |
|
RUT |
APR |
23% |
-- |
141D |
|
SPX |
APR |
6.7% |
-- |
58D |
|
SPX |
APR |
10% |
-- |
20D |
|
SPX |
MAY |
13% |
-- |
20D |
|
SPX |
MAY |
13% |
-- |
49D |
|
SPX |
MAY |
7.8% |
-- |
17D |
|
SPX |
MAY |
4% |
-- |
22D |
|
SPX |
MAY |
.2% |
-- |
28D |
|
RUT |
MAY |
1% |
-- |
79D |
|
SPX |
JUN |
1% |
-- |
45D |
|
SPX |
JUN |
3.9% |
4% |
6D |
|
SPX |
JUL |
10.5% |
10.7% |
7D |
|
SPX |
JUL |
4% |
4% |
6D |
|
SPX |
JUL |
2.7% |
1% |
8D |
|
SPX |
JUL |
3.3% |
1.5% |
22D |
|
SPX |
AUG |
1.3% |
2.4% |
11D |
|
SPX |
SEP |
1.8% |
1.8% |
41D |
|
SPX |
SEP |
4.2% |
4.2% |
6D |
|
RUT |
SEP |
6.5% |
10.1% |
93D |
|
RUT |
OCT |
3.6% |
14.2% |
4D |
|
RUT |
OCT |
4.2% |
2.9% |
36D |
|
RUT |
OCT |
1.1% |
1.8% |
15D |
|
RUT |
NOV |
3.9% |
75.2% |
33D |
|
SPX |
DEC |
14.1% |
3.9% |
87D |
|
SPX |
DEC |
5.5% |
13.7% |
19D |
|
SPX |
DEC |
3.8% |
7.7% |
19D |
|
SPX |
DEC |
6.8% |
6.8% |
36D |
This table presents 34 historical paper-trade examples involving SPX and RUT. Each percentage is simulated trade P&L divided by the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T figures use Regulation T margin requirements; portfolio-margin (PM) figures use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array. A dash means no portfolio-margin figure is displayed for that example.
2015 Paper-Trade Case Studies 54 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · SPX AND RUT
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2016 Paper-Trade Case Studies 47 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · SPX AND RUT
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2017 Paper-Trade Case Studies 58 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · SPX AND SPXW
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2018 Paper-Trade Case Studies 89 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · SPX AND SPY
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2018 Paper-Trade Case Studies 14 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · SPX
MONTH CLOSED |
Return on modeled PM BP |
DURATION IN DAYS |
METHOD |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
MAR |
221% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
APR |
86% |
3 |
CORE V |
|
MAY |
7% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
MAY |
15% |
22 |
CORE V |
|
MAY |
3% |
35 |
CORE V |
|
JUN |
41% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
JUN |
130% |
10 |
CORE V |
|
JUL |
9% |
10 |
CORE V |
|
JUL |
11% |
17 |
CORE V |
|
AUG |
4% |
7 |
CORE V |
|
OCT |
1.5% |
34 |
CORE V |
|
OCT |
9% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
OCT |
29% |
9 |
CORE V |
|
NOV |
22% |
34 |
CORE V |
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2019 Paper-Trade Case Studies 45 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · VARIOUS TICKERS
MONTH CLOSED |
RETURN ON MODELED REG-T BP |
RETURN ON MODELED PM BP |
DURATION IN DAYS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
JAN |
1.6% |
41.7% |
11 |
|
JAN |
2.1% |
2.8% |
27 |
|
FEB |
2.3% |
5.7% |
8 |
|
FEB |
CPM |
3.8% |
2 |
|
FEB |
2.2% |
2.1% |
15 |
|
FEB |
.1% |
2.4% |
35 |
|
MAR |
CPM |
.3% |
157 |
|
APR |
2.9% |
3.3% |
24 |
|
APR |
2.1% |
6.3% |
21 |
|
APR |
2.1% |
2.8% |
47 |
|
MAY |
2.6% |
4.3% |
3 |
|
MAY |
1.8% |
15% |
50 |
|
MAY |
2.3% |
26% |
57 |
|
MAY |
1.2% |
4% |
156 |
|
MAY |
CPM |
20% |
58 |
|
JUN |
2% |
2% |
72 |
|
JUN |
1.3% |
2.4% |
30 |
|
JUN |
2.1% |
3.6% |
36 |
|
JUN |
2% |
2% |
128 |
|
JUL |
CPM |
4.5% |
52 |
|
JUL |
CPM |
4.4% |
60 |
|
JUL |
CPM |
261% |
7 |
|
JUL |
CPM |
28.7% |
1 |
|
JUL |
2.3% |
14% |
72 |
|
JUL |
1.5% |
17% |
55 |
|
JUL |
-.8% |
-.8% |
59 |
|
AUG |
CPM |
23% |
2 |
|
AUG |
CPM |
22% |
5 |
|
AUG |
CPM |
49% |
6 |
|
AUG |
.5% |
4% |
81 |
|
AUG |
2.6% |
10% |
3 |
|
AUG |
0% |
.1% |
241 |
|
AUG |
4.6% |
18% |
15 |
|
SEP |
CPM |
8.6% |
60 |
|
SEP |
0% |
0% |
70 |
|
SEP |
.1% |
.3% |
71 |
|
SEP |
CPM |
4.8% |
253 |
|
OCT |
CPM |
23% |
3 |
|
OCT |
2.6% |
16% |
69 |
|
NOV |
1.3% |
9% |
56 |
|
NOV |
0% |
2% |
238 |
|
DEC |
3.8% |
4.8% |
109 |
|
DEC |
4.1% |
133% |
37 |
|
DEC |
2.8% |
95% |
119 |
|
DEC |
.6% |
1.8% |
137 |
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2019 Paper-Trade Case Studies 19 HISTORICAL EXAMPLES · SPX
MONTH CLOSED |
Return on modeled PM BP |
DURATION IN DAYS |
METHOD |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
JAN |
1.2% |
3 |
CORE V |
|
JAN |
70% |
4 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
6% |
2 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
13% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
15% |
20 |
CORE V |
|
APR |
9% |
12 |
CORE V |
|
MAY |
9% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
JUL |
39% |
1 |
CORE V |
|
AUG |
12.5% |
3 |
CORE V |
|
AUG |
27% |
3 |
CORE V |
|
AUG |
21% |
3 |
CORE V |
|
SEP |
12% |
29 |
CORE V |
|
SEP |
0% |
262 |
CORE V |
|
OCT |
66% |
70 |
CORE V |
|
OCT |
28% |
3 |
CORE V |
|
OCT |
14% |
23 |
CORE V |
|
DEC |
9% |
1 |
CORE V |
|
DEC |
10% |
11 |
CORE V |
|
DEC |
14% |
3 |
CORE V |
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2020 Paper-Trade Case Studies Reg-T & Portfolio-margin examples · 45 trades
MONTH CLOSED |
RETURN ON MODELED REG-T BP |
RETURN ON MODELED PM BP |
DURATION IN DAYS |
METHOD |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JAN |
CPM |
8.5% |
16 |
CORE IV |
|
JAN |
3.6% |
52% |
73 |
CORE II |
|
FEB |
5% |
137% |
12 |
CORE II |
|
FEB |
CPM |
4% |
4 |
CORE IV |
|
FEB |
1% |
REG-T |
97 |
CORE III |
|
FEB |
0% |
REG-T |
68 |
CORE III |
|
FEB |
4.4% |
15% |
25 |
CORE II |
|
FEB |
3% |
89% |
2 |
CORE II |
|
FEB |
12% |
55% |
189 |
CORE II |
|
FEB |
6.5% |
311% |
57 |
CORE II |
|
FEB |
3.5% |
23% |
22 |
CORE III |
|
FEB |
6% |
447% |
2 |
CORE II |
|
MAR |
CPM |
35% |
41 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
CPM |
55% |
7 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
CPM |
26% |
7 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
CPM |
86% |
5 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
5.3% |
29% |
3 |
CORE II |
|
MAR |
6% |
63% |
64 |
CORE III |
|
MAR |
9% |
191% |
5 |
CORE II |
|
MAR |
CPM |
83% |
1 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
CPM |
126% |
1 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
8% |
142% |
5 |
CORE II |
|
MAR |
17% |
88% |
14 |
CORE III |
|
MAR |
9% |
106% |
9 |
CORE II |
|
MAR |
12% |
113% |
21 |
CORE III |
|
MAR |
0% |
0% |
164 |
CORE III |
|
MAR |
CPM |
88% |
4 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
CPM |
8% |
14 |
CORE IV |
|
MAR |
4.3% |
186% |
3 |
CORE II |
|
MAR |
2.5% |
81% |
2 |
CORE I |
|
MAR |
3% |
78% |
14 |
CORE II |
|
MAR |
2.3% |
56% |
18 |
CORE I |
|
APR |
4.5% |
15% |
7 |
CORE II |
|
APR |
CPM |
8% |
7 |
CORE IV |
|
APR |
5% |
177% |
10 |
CORE II |
|
APR |
1.2% |
23% |
13 |
CORE 1 |
|
MAY |
2.6% |
33% |
18 |
CORE III |
|
MAY |
3.8% |
82% |
9 |
CORE III |
|
MAY |
3% |
31% |
21 |
CORE III |
|
MAY |
9.3% |
154% |
7 |
EXPERIMENTAL |
|
MAY |
CPM |
87% |
12 |
EXPERIMENTAL |
|
MAY |
1.8% |
68% |
50 |
CORE III |
|
MAY |
3.4% |
56% |
28 |
CORE II |
|
MAY |
2.5% |
66% |
17 |
CORE III |
|
JUN |
3% |
20% |
36 |
CORE II |
|
JUN |
2% |
70% |
68 |
CORE II |
|
JUN |
2.7% |
75% |
11 |
CORE II |
|
JUN |
2.7% |
114% |
32 |
CORE III |
|
JUL |
5.5% |
126% |
61 |
EXPERIMENTAL |
|
AUG |
2.5% |
6.5% |
116D |
CORE II |
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
2020 Paper-trade case studies Portfolio-margin examples · 33 trades
MONTH CLOSED |
RETURN ON MODELED PM BP |
DURATION IN DAYS |
METHOD |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
JAN |
37% |
23 |
CORE V |
|
JAN |
61% |
4 |
CORE V |
|
JAN |
62% |
8 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
168% |
13 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
95% |
4 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
32% |
5 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
106% |
4 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
23% |
12 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
40% |
19 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
11% |
12 |
CORE V |
|
FEB |
261% |
2 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
91% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
137% |
5 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
256% |
8 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
232% |
1 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
322% |
2 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
309% |
7 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
212% |
1 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
362% |
2 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
832% |
9 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
196% |
1 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
432% |
5 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
115% |
5 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
601% |
8 |
CORE V |
|
MAR |
824% |
11 |
CORE V |
|
APR |
142% |
9 |
CORE V |
|
APR |
70% |
6 |
CORE V |
|
MAY |
64% |
4 |
CORE V |
|
MAY |
10.7% |
9 |
CORE V |
|
MAY |
16% |
15 |
CORE V |
|
JUN |
15% |
34 |
CORE V |
|
JUN |
9.3% |
50 |
CORE V |
|
JUN |
21% |
49 |
CORE V |
|
JUL |
21% |
63 |
CORE V |
Each percentage shows simulated trade P&L relative to the modeled buying-power requirement for that margin method. Reg-T and portfolio-margin requirements differ, so the percentages can differ substantially. Portfolio-margin calculations use the OCC TIMS ±10% risk array.
These historical paper-trade examples are presented for educational and illustrative purposes. They were not executed through a brokerage account and do not represent actual client account results or recommendations to enter or exit trades.
Trade values were calculated using closing midpoint prices in a paper account. Some examples were recorded during market hours and others after the market close. Commissions are not included. Midpoint prices may differ from prices available in live trading, and modeled margin requirements may differ from those imposed by a broker.
The tables do not show interim losses or maximum drawdowns while trades were open. The reported percentages therefore do not show the full path or risk of each simulated trade.
These company-maintained records have not been independently audited. Hypothetical results have limitations and do not predict future performance. PM means Customer Portfolio Margin. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to trade.